This is a link post.

Every month, the Forecasting Research Institute asks top computer scientists, economists, industry leaders, policy experts and superforecasters for their AI predictions. Here's what we learned from the first three months of forecasts:

AI is already reshaping labor markets, culture, science, and the economy—yet experts debate its value, risks, and how fast it will integrate into everyday life. Leaders of AI companies forecast near futures in which AI cures all diseases, replaces whole classes of jobs, and supercharges GDP growth. Skeptics see small gains at best, with AI's impact amounting to little more than a modest boost in productivity—if anything at all.

Despite these clashing narratives, there is little work systematically mapping the full spectrum of views among computer scientists, economists, technologists in the private sector, and the public. We fill this gap with LEAP, a monthly survey tracking the probabilistic forecasts of experts, superforecasters, and the public. Expert participants include top-cited AI and ML scientists, prominent economists, key technical staff at frontier AI companies, and influential policy experts from a broad range of NGOs.

LEAP operates on three key principles:

• Accountability: LEAP forecasts are detailed and verifiable, encouraging disciplined thinking and allowing us [...]

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Outline:

(02:52 ) The LEAP Panel

(04:55 ) LEAP Waves 1-3

(05:25 ) Insights from Waves 1-3

(05:29 ) 1. Experts expect sizable societal effects from AI by 2040.

(09:03 ) 2. Experts disagree and express substantial uncertainty about the trajectory of AI.

(09:48 ) 3. The median expert expects significantly less AI progress than leaders of frontier AI companies.

(13:23 ) 4. Experts predict much faster AI progress than the general public.

(16:41 ) 5. There are few differences in prediction between superforecasters and experts, but, where there is disagreement, experts tend to expect more AI progress. We don't see systematic differences between the beliefs of computer scientists, economists, industry professionals, and policy professionals.

(19:34 ) Future LEAP waves

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

November 10th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PjGRFxXrGENQTTkWm/introducing-leap-the-longitudinal-expert-ai-panel

Linkpost URL:
https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/introducing-leap

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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